Woody vegetation cover change and vulnerability to deforestation in Mugulat Area, Eastern Tigray, Ethiopia

Abstract

Deforestation is the main challenge that forests in Ethiopia are currently facing. Identifying the factors that have the most significant impact on woody vegetation coverage will help sustain the remaining forests and increase woody vegetation coverage in severely degraded landscapes. Therefore, this study was conducted in the Mugulat area of northern Ethiopia to determine the magnitude of woody vegetation cover change and quantify the vulnerability of woody vegetation to disturbances using GIS techniques. Landsat images from 1984, 2000, and 2017 were used for this study. Multi-criteria evaluation through the overlay weight analysis of ArcGIS 10.5 was used to evaluate the vulnerability of woody vegetation to disturbance risk. Cultivated land increased by 35.04% from 28.51 km2 in 1984 to 38.51 km2 in 2017. Shrubland alarmingly almost reduced by half (47.49%) from 24.44 km2 in 1984 to 12.83 km2 in 2017. Over the last 30 years, forest land increased from 4.70 km2 in 2017 to 3.71 km2 in 1984. Along with a forest cover increase of 26.64%, the results show that woody vegetation cover declined from 48.35% in 1984 to 32.95% in 2017, corresponding to an annual loss of 27.42 ha. The significant decline in shrublands is an indicator of the vulnerability of the woody vegetation cover in the study area. Over 50% and 25% of the vegetation cover range from very high to high vulnerability, respectively, and are susceptible to disturbance. Restoration measures must be implemented to reduce the vulnerability of the woody vegetation cover. Policymakers and decision-makers should focus on nature-based solutions and climate-smart agriculture, which can contribute to increasing woody vegetation cover.