Vulnerability and Projected Dynamics of North African Forest Ecosystems Under Climate Change

Abstract

North African forest ecosystems provide essential services while facing unprecedented pressures from climate change and anthropogenic activities. This chapter examines the vulnerability of seven emblematic Moroccan forest species using species distribution modeling (MaxEnt) to project current and future (2070) distributions under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The authors identify key bioclimatic drivers and reveal extensive habitat contractions ranging from 15% to 100%. Critically vulnerable species face complete habitat elimination under severe warming, while widespread species experience catastrophic losses exceeding 94% under pessimistic scenarios. Although new suitable areas emerge for some species (<12.5%), these gains remain insufficient to offset projected losses, signaling increased fragmentation and ecosystem degradation. This chapter emphasizes the urgent need to integrate climate projections into conservation planning, adaptive management and restoration strategies to enhance resilience and safeguard ecosystem services across this region.