article · PLoS neglected tropical diseases
Research along Lake Kivu in the East African Rift demonstrates that volcanic activity directly influences cholera outbreaks by altering lake water conditions. Weekly measurements of sulphur dioxide emissions from the Nyiragongo volcano plume between 2007 and 2012 correlated strongly with increases in the temperature, salinity, and conductivity of Lake Kivu. In turn, these environmental shifts aligned with the timing of cholera cases in the neighbouring Katana health zone, whereas conventional meteorological factors like rainfall and air temperature showed no such connection. Further field sampling between 2016 and 2018 confirmed that higher water salinity and temperature were linked to greater concentrations of Vibrio cholerae bacteria in both the lake water and local fish populations. Because bacterial abundance in fish corresponds with levels in the water, eating local fish presents a direct contamination route. Volcanic gas monitoring offers a practical mechanism for forecasting regional cholera epidemics.
Cholera remains a major threat to communities bordering the East African Rift lakes. By identifying an unexpected driver of bacterial proliferation, namely volcanic emissions rather than rainfall or ambient temperature, this work provides a clearer understanding of how environmental shifts trigger outbreaks, enabling local authorities to better anticipate health crises and warn populations about consuming contaminated fish.
This research suggests an application in early-warning disease surveillance systems for public health authorities and disaster management agencies. By tracking volcanic sulphur dioxide fluxes alongside lake water parameters, monitoring services could predict cholera outbreaks before widespread human infection occurs. The work demonstrates a validated environmental correlation, representing an early to intermediate stage of application that requires integration into operational public health forecasting frameworks.
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We hypothesized that Cholera (Vibrio cholerae) that appeared along Lake Kivu in the African Rift in the seventies, might be controlled by volcano-tectonic activity, which, by increasing surface water and groundwater salinity and temperature, may partly rule the water characteristics of Lake Kivu and promote V. cholerae proliferation. Volcanic activity (assessed weekly by the SO2 flux of Nyiragongo volcano plume over the 2007-2012 period) is highly positively correlated with the water conductivity, salinity and temperature of the Kivu lake. Over the 2007-2012 period, these three parameters were highly positively correlated with the temporal dynamics of cholera cases in the Katana health zone that border the lake. Meteorological variables (air temperature and rainfall), and the other water characteristics (namely pH and dissolved oxygen concentration in lake water) were unrelated to cholera dynamics over the same period. Over the 2016-2018 period, we sampled weekly lake water salinity and conductivity, and twice a month vibrio occurrence in lake water and fish. The abundance of V. cholerae in the lake was positively correlated with lake salinity, temperature, and the number of cholera cases in the population of the Katana health zone. V. cholerae abundance in fishes was positively correlated with V. cholerae abundance in lake water, suggesting that their consumption directly contaminate humans. The activity of the volcano, by controlling the physico-chemical characteristics of Lake Kivu, is therefore a major determinant of the presence of the bacillus in the lake. SO2 fluxes in the volcano plume can be used as a tool to predict epidemic risks.
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DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008406
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