Vegetation recovery amid conflicts: Analysis of land use land cover changes in Darfur, Sudan, using high-resolution satellite imagery

Abstract

The prolonged conflict in Sudan's Darfur region has led to extensive displacement of local populations. This study uses advanced high-resolution satellite imagery to explore the complex effects of long-term conflicts on land use management in Darfur, Sudan. It highlights positive changes in vegetation cover near internally displaced persons (IDPs) camps and examines land use and land cover (LULC) change trends from 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2023. Utilizing PlanetScope time-series imagery and Object-based Image Analysis (OBIA) with Orfeo ToolBox 8.1.2 in QGIS 3.28.6. and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), we assessed vegetation dynamics in relation to drought conditions in the study region. The research identified six major LULC classes including agricultural land, bareland, water bodies, vegetation cover, built-up areas, and wadi through supervised classification, achieving an overall accuracy ranging from 90.66% to 95.14%. The findings reveal a significant increase in vegetation cover from 182.76ha (0.75%) in the year 2017 to 391.09ha (1.60%) in 2023, marking a 208.33ha (113.99%) expansion over the study period. Water bodies also increased from 0.18ha (0.001%) in 2017 to 3.34ha in 2023 (0.014%). These improvements are attributed to annual reforestation efforts by the Forest National Corporation (FNC), the construction of artificial water harvesting aquifers, and a general increase in mean annual rainfall from 2014 to 2022 aligning with reduced drought intensity in the study area. Additionally, bareland areas decreased rapidly from 46.82% to 39.31%, while agricultural land expanded from 48.26% to 54.61% between 2017 and 2023. This research provides valuable insights into the positive environmental impacts of afforestation and reforestation efforts in conflict-affected regions. The results emphasize the critical role of IDPs in supporting the global sustainable development agenda, particularly in the restoration and conservation of terrestrial ecosystems within conflict-affected zones. Moreover, the study demonstrates the potential for substantial ecological recovery in the study area.