Variability of seasonal temperature from 1990 to 2020 within Oum Er Rbia hydraulic basin (Morocco): Study of trends and anomalies

Abstract

Abstract The fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that global temperatures have increased during the 20th century. In Morocco, numerous studies have unveiled that the nation has been contending with the effects of global warming for several decades, attributed to its geographical location. The studies have mainly focused on the evolution of rainfall and the recurrence of droughts. Nevertheless, temperature variations remain less addressed, especially at large spatial scales. This paper aims to study the seasonal temperature variability in the large hydraulic basin of Oum Er Rbia, focusing on its anomalies and trends as well as identifying their impacts on the basin’s territory. Indeed, the large basin of Oum Er Rbia occupies more than 48,.000 km 2 and is characterized by an arid to semi-arid climate. Its water resources are important and play an essential role in the country’s socio-economic development. This basin is well-known for its agricultural activity. Although its water and economic potential are significant, the great basin is considered vulnerable to climatic variations, which strongly condition its development. Considering the significance of temperature trends within the framework of global warming, this current study delves into the topic of seasonal temperature variability within the expansive hydraulic basin of Oum Er Rbia. Based on statistical analysis using the temperature anomaly index and the Mann-Kendall trend test, this study reveals that strong interannual variability marked the evolution of seasonal temperatures during the period of 1990-2020, with a remarkable upward trend during the autumn and spring. When the temperature increase, the temperature increases in turn: thus, the negative impacts affect both water resources and the agriculture sector, which suffers from the combined effect of increased evapotranspiration and reduction of irrigation water.