Using Satellite Imagery to Analyze Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULC) in the Motobus Area Ecosystem, Nile Delta, Egypt

Abstract

Understanding the changing dynamics of land use and land cover (LULC) is critical for efficient ecological management modification and sustainable land-use planning. This work aimed to identify and categorize seven Landsat satellite images over 50 years in Egypt's Nile Delta Motobus Area Ecosystem. In the present study, the detection of historical LULC change dynamics for a time from 1972 to 2022 was performed. We used seven Landsat images, acquired by different sensors, as spatial and temporal data sources for the study region. Moreover, the process of image categorization employed a supervised classification method. The results of the LULC change estimation between 1972 and 2022 revealed that the proportion of built-up areas in the study area increased from 5.5% in 1972 to 12.5% in 2022. In addition, the proportion of cultivated land has risen from 56.45% of the total area in 1972 to 63.55% in 2022, primarily because of continuous soil reclamation initiatives in desert regions beyond the Nile Valley. Furthermore, from 1972 to 2022, desert regions saw a significant reduction in their total land area, losing around 50% of their original extent, whereas water bodies saw a minimal and negligible expansion. These trends are characterized by a decline in desert regions and an increase in recently restored urban and agricultural areas. Regarding the CA-Markov model validation, the Kappa indices varied between 0.86 and 0.93 for both the actual and simulated maps. This indicates that the model performed exceptionally well in predicting future trends in LULC.