article · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Blockchain technology offers potential advantages for small and medium-sized enterprises, yet adoption remains constrained in emerging markets facing institutional uncertainty. An investigation of 306 small and medium enterprises across all twelve regions of Morocco assesses the technological, organisational, and environmental drivers of adoption intention. The evidence indicates that perceived complexity, cost, and risk substantially lower adoption intention. Conversely, compatibility, trialability, organisational financial slack, and regulatory trust positively drive willingness to adopt. Although visibility of successful implementation alone does not show a direct significant link to adoption, it becomes positive when regulatory trust is high. Consequently, the influence of standard innovation attributes depends on institutional conditions rather than operating universally. Building regulatory trust, supporting opportunities for practical experimentation, and enhancing digital capabilities represent vital steps to encourage broader uptake among smaller firms.
Understanding why small businesses hesitate to adopt emerging technologies helps policymakers and industry leaders target the real barriers. In emerging markets, technological promise alone is insufficient if firms fear legal uncertainty or high implementation costs. Creating trusted regulatory frameworks and low-risk trial opportunities allows smaller companies to embrace digital transformation with greater confidence.
This early-stage empirical study informs blockchain vendors, business advisers, and policy bodies seeking to encourage technology uptake among small and medium enterprises. Rather than delivering a deployable commercial tool, the findings identify the operational conditions needed for market rollouts, highlighting that enterprise solution providers must reduce integration complexity, lower initial costs, and offer trial environments to attract smaller corporate clients.
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Abstract Despite the transformative potential of blockchain for SMEs, empirical adoption remains limited in emerging-market economies, where institutional uncertainty may constrain the translation of perceived innovation attributes into adoption decisions. This study examines the technological, organizational, and environmental determinants of blockchain adoption intention among Moroccan SMEs and investigates whether institutional conditions shape the effectiveness of classical innovation-diffusion mechanisms. Drawing on Diffusion of Innovations (DOI) theory and complemented by the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) framework, we surveyed 306 SMEs across Morocco's 12 regions. Using multi-item measures and a maximum-likelihood Ordered Probit model with marginal effects, the study finds that perceived complexity, cost, and risk significantly reduce adoption intention, whereas compatibility, trialability, financial slack, and regulatory trust increase it. In contrast, observability is not significantly associated with adoption intention. An exploratory interaction analysis, however, indicates that the relationship between observability and adoption becomes positive when regulatory trust is high. These findings suggest that the effects of DOI attributes may be institutionally contingent rather than universal: visibility of successful innovation does not necessarily translate into adoption when firms lack confidence in the institutional environment surrounding the technology. The study therefore extends blockchain adoption research by positioning institutional conditions as a potential boundary condition of DOI mechanisms and provides policy implications for strengthening regulatory trust, experimentation opportunities, and SME digital capabilities in Morocco. JEL Codes: O33, O55, L26, M15
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DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22226058
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