Understanding the Effect of Climate Change and Productivity Factors on Maize Production in Nigeria

Abstract

One sector that is significantly impacted by climate change is the agricultural sector. Regardless of location, changes in climate have a profound influence on agriculture. This study examined the effects of climate change and productivity factors on maize yields in Nigeria. Data were obtained from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method of data analysis was employed to test for long-run relationships among the variables. The results showed that temperature (TEMP), rainfall (RF), labor force (LF), capital stock (CS), and availability of fertilizer (AF) were statistically significant at the 5% level and had positive effects on maize yield. Based on these findings, the paper concludes that maize yield in Nigeria is significantly influenced by temperature, rainfall, labor force, capital stock, and fertilizer availability. The study recommends that, given the statistically insignificant effects of government expenditure on agriculture (GEA) and credit to the agricultural sector, there is a strong need to reform agricultural budgeting and implementation strategies. Public spending should be more effectively targeted, while investments in training programs and mechanization instruments for rural workers should be prioritized. Lastly, future research should employ mixed-methods approaches combining quantitative econometric modeling with qualitative insights to better explain how farmers perceive and respond to climate impacts.