UNDERSTANDING SPATIAL DRIVERS OF DEFORESTATION IN THE LUKI BIOSPHERE RESERVE, DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

Abstract

Understanding factors that are driving land use/land cover change is one of the major steps that should be rationally addressed for the purpose of sustainable management of natural resources. The present study examines four spatial drivers affecting deforestation in the Luki Biosphere Reserve over the last three decades , where forest resources are prone to multiple human pressures compromising their sustainability. These are: distance from the nearest road; population density; elevation; and slope. Change detection analysis was performed on classified Landsat images to generate the Boolean map with two categories including forest change and no change. GIS and topographic data were used to compute spatial drivers of deforestation. Additionally, the logistic regression model was used to assess the effect of the spatial drivers on forest conversion, and determine the drivers that significantly influence forest conversion. The study results revealed a major change in the landscape that led to the loss of forest land, and gain in other land use classes. However, the regression model was statistically significant (p < 0.01), suggesting that all the spatial drivers (independent variables) were significantly related to forest conversion. Distance to roads and population density have been identified as the most significant spatial drivers of deforestation over the last three decades. However, although slope and elevation also significantly affected forest conversion, but when compared to two other variables, their effects were moderate. It has been noted that the impact of these spatial drivers was spatially related to socioeconomic and demographic aspects. This study provides valuable information that could benefit the managers, policy-makers, and local authorities in their decision-making processes, especially for the purpose of environmental monitoring.