Ultra-short-term global horizontal irradiance forecasting based on a novel and hybrid GRU-TCN model

Abstract

The need for energy is increasing globally due to a several factors, including population growth and economic development. Achieving this energy demand in the face of global warming and the depletion of fossil fuels requires the use of renewable energy. Photovoltaic energy is one of the renewable energy sources that is widely used in many nations across the world. Photovoltaic (PV) energy integration into the grid has significant benefits for the environment and economy, but at high penetration levels, its intermittent nature makes system stability difficult to maintain. Accurate ultra-short-term global horizontal irradiance forecasting is necessary in order to guarantee the most optimal use of photovoltaic power production sources. For GHI forecasting, a novel GRU-TCN-based model is proposed in this paper. It is composed of two neural networks: a temporal convolutional network and a gated recurrent unit. After extracting the temporal features from time-series solar irradiance data using GRU, the spatial features are obtained from the correlation matrix of different meteorological variables of the target and its neighbor position using TCN. Univariate and multivariate GRU-TCN models have been used for GHI ultra short-term forecasting. This paper compares the univariate and multivariate GRU-TCN models with TCN, LSTM, and GRU models based on three evaluation metrics in order to investigate how different combinations of variables affect the accuracy of the GRU-TCN models for one-step forecasting. The findings indicate the adoption of a univariate model using historical data of GHI is suitable to obtain reliable forecasting with 23.02 (W/m2) in MAE as opposed to the best multivariate model that achieved 25.67 (W/m2) in MAE. According to the results, the proposed model outperforms the other models assessed and offers a practical alternative for ultra-short-term GHI forecasting.