Trends, Opportunities, and Challenges of the Ethiopian Soybean Export Market in the Past Two Decades (2004–2022)

Abstract

The study was conducted to assess the trends, opportunities, and challenges of the Ethiopian soybean export market in the past two decades (2004–2022), and forecasted the next 10‐year export performance of the sector, to identify intervention area for factors that affects soybean export performance in the country. To address the objectives most latest scientific literature was intensely reviewed and the next 10 yearsʼ export was forecasted using Box–Jenkins, ARIMA (4,1,0). The review found out that in Ethiopia more than 90% of soybeans supplied to the market have been exported with a high increase for the past two decades but not comparable with the rise in the global market. In the country, there are unexploited high production and export opportunities associated with convenient agroecology condition zones for production, cheap and abundant labor force, popularity of the oilseed in the international market, and abundant arable land in the country. Nevertheless, in the past two decades, the sector was highly challenged by low productivity and quality of the crop; political instability and security situation; high price volatility, and competition in the international market. Unless the situation is improved, the ARIMA forecasted model result indicates Ethiopiaʼs soybean exports increase only to a certain extent in the next 10 years and the export bill of the country will be $97.4 million in 2032. Accordingly, the study identifies intervention areas including efficiently utilizing the existing abundant arable land and cheap labor force for production, improving the grain quality provided in the global market, protecting the popularity of Ethiopian organic oilseed, encouraging soybean marketing in Ethiopian commodity exchange platform, and secure political social instability in the country to improve the performance and benefit more from the sector.