Trends of climate change and pastoralists’ adaptive perceptions: Evidence from Dubluk district, Borena Zone, southern Ethiopia

Abstract

Pastoralist livelihoods in Ethiopia are highly influenced by the spatial patterns and temporal distribution of climate variables. Analysis of these climate variables is essential for understanding their impacts on livestock and crop productivity. This study aimed to examine trends in climate change and pastoralists’ adaptive perceptions in Dubluk District, Borena Zone, Southern Ethiopia. The Mann–Kendall test and drought indices were applied for trend analysis, while household surveys were conducted to assess local perceptions of climate variability. This study is novel because no previous research has integrated long-term climate variability analysis with pastoralists’ perception in this specific study area, providing the first localized evidence for climate–livelihood interactions in the Dubluk district. The results indicate strong rainfall variability characterized by alternating dry and wet conditions. Rainfall Anomaly Index values ranged from −1.10 in 2020 to 2.03 in 2023, with 11 years of positive rainfall anomalies and 19 years of negative anomalies. Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index values ranged from −2.014 to 1.93, indicating recurrent drought episodes and occasional extreme wet conditions. Temperature records show an overall increasing trend in both minimum and maximum temperatures. Similarly, most pastoralists perceived declining rainfall and rising temperatures as major climate change trends in the study area. Maximum temperature was found to significantly reduce crop yield and milk production, demonstrating its direct impact on pastoral livelihoods. The findings further indicate that rangeland and water management were the most widely practiced adaptation strategies (81%), followed by herd mobility (70%), herd splitting (67%), livestock diversification (65%), cultivation of drought-tolerant crops (58%), haymaking (37%), engagement in labor work (21.9%), handicraft production (12.6%), and petty trade (8.7%). In conclusion, the study demonstrates increasing drought, rainfall variability, and rising temperatures in the study area, and shows that these factors are negatively affecting crop yield and milk production. It is recommended to strengthen drought-resilient water harvesting, improve rangeland management, and enhance climate information and early warning systems to support pastoral adaptation and resilience.