article · Heliyon
Livelihoods in the Awash River basin depend heavily on rainfall, making the region vulnerable to water scarcity and agricultural declines. An assessment of meteorological records from 29 stations between 1986 and 2016 revealed a significant rise in annual and seasonal temperatures, with key change-points identified in 1997 and 2001. Concurrently, the downstream parts of the basin experienced significant reductions and heightened variability in rainfall. Rainfall during the minor rainy season underwent a change-point in 1998, followed by an average annual reduction of 52.5 millimetres. These rainfall anomalies correlate with broader oceanic phenomena, including shifts linked to El Niño, La Niña, and warming in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. To counter these shifts, integrated water management strategies, water-harvesting infrastructure, and early warning systems for El Niño events are proposed to protect agricultural productivity across the basin.
Rain-fed agriculture supports most communities in the Awash River basin, but recurring droughts and warming threaten local food security. Documenting long-term temperature rises and downstream rainfall deficits enables regional planners to design targeted interventions. Connecting these local shifts to ocean-driven climate events also provides a basis for early warning systems that help farmers and authorities prepare for dry periods.
This study provides observational data to inform the development and deployment of water-harvesting technologies and integrated water management systems, particularly for downstream agricultural operations. The findings can also support public or private providers of meteorological early warning systems tracking El Niño events. This is early-stage analytical research, meaning actual commercialisation or technological deployment would require subsequent engineering, field-testing, and local adaptation.
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Awash River basin (ARB) as a system is in a state of continuous change that requires successive studies to discern the changes or trends of climatic elements through time due to climate change/variability, and other socio-economical developmental activities in the basin. The livelihood of communities in the ARB is primarily based on rainfall-dependent agriculture. Effects of rainfall anomalies such as reduction of agricultural productivity, water scarcity, and food insecurity are becoming more prevalent in this area. In recent years, ARB has been experiencing more frequent rainfall anomalies that change-point detection test and trend analyses of basin rainfall associated with sea surface temperature is crucial in providing guidance to improve agricultural productivity in ARB. Change-point detection tests such as Pettit's, the von Neumann ratio (VNR), Buishand's range (BR) and standard normal homogeneity (SNH) plus trend analysis Mann-Kendall (MK) test of rainfall and temperature data from 29 meteorological stations in the ARB were carried out from 1986 to 2016. A significant increasing trend of annual and seasonal temperature was found. The temperature change-points for the annual and major rainy season (MRS) were detected in 2001, while for the minor rainy season (mRS) in 1997. A significant decreasing trend, shift, and high variability of rainfall were detected in the downstream part of the ARB. The BR and SNH results showed that the mRS rainfall change-point was in 1998, with a subsequent mean annual decrease of 52.5 mm. The increase (decrease) of rainfall in the annual and MRS was attributable to La Niña (El Niño) events. The significant decreasing trend and change-point of rainfall in the mRS was attributable to the steady warming of the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, local warming, and La Niña events. With this knowledge of the current trends and change-point for rainfall and temperature in the ARB, it is therefore essential that appropriate integrated water management and water-harvesting technologies are established, especially in the downstream areas. Moreover, early detection of El Niño episodes would provide invaluable warning of impending rainfall anomalies in the ARB and would enable better preparations to mitigate its negative effects.
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DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e08024
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