The two faces of cashew expansion: Extensification-led volatility in West Africa and balanced intensification in Asia

Abstract

Cashew nut (Anacardium occidentale L.) is a critical global commodity that supports the livelihoods of millions of smallholder farmers in tropical regions. The global production landscape has undergone a significant geographical shift, with West African nations, particularly Côte d'Ivoire, emerging as dominant players, while traditional producers like India and new powerhouses like Vietnam have pursued different growth trajectories. However, a systematic, quantitative understanding of the drivers of production changes and instability across these major exporting countries is lacking. This study conducts a comparative decomposition analysis of cashew nut production in Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, India, Nigeria, and Vietnam from 1992 to 2023, utilizing time-series data from the FAO STAT database. The period was bifurcated into two epochs (1992-2007 and 2008-2023) to analyze changes. The methodology involved decomposing the change in average production into contributions from area expansion, yield improvement, their interaction, and changes in area-yield covariance. Furthermore, the change in production variance was decomposed to identify sources of volatility. The results reveal two distinct growth paradigms. Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana exhibited an extensification-led growth model, where area expansion accounted for 63.78% and 101.22% of production increases, respectively. This model was associated with high production volatility, primarily driven by fluctuations in the area harvested. In contrast, Vietnam demonstrated a balanced intensification model, with area (48.19%), yield (27.71%), and their interaction (26.41%) contributing almost equally to robust growth, coupled with reduced instability. India’s growth was primarily area-driven (79.00%), but yield improvement played a significant role (15.49%), and its production system exhibited a unique trend towards greater stability. Nigeria was the only country to experience a production decline, driven by a collapse in both yield (-62.31%) and area (-31.13%). The study concludes that the heavy reliance on extensification in West Africa, while successful in boosting output, renders the sector vulnerable to volatility and poses sustainability challenges. The Asian model, particularly Vietnam's, highlights the benefits of simultaneous investment in yield-enhancing technologies and managed area expansion. The findings underscore the urgent need for policies in West Africa to pivot towards sustainable intensification through research, extension, and climate-smart practices, while Nigeria requires a fundamental sectoral revival. This research provides a quantitative framework for policymakers and industry stakeholders to enhance the productivity, stability, and sustainability of the global cashew sector.