The Sustainability Challenge of Water Resources in Arid Rural Areas Under Drought Constraints and Increasing Consumption Pressure: A Case Study of the Guercif Plain (Morocco)

Abstract

This article analyzes the state of water resources in the Guercif Plain (Morocco) under the combined effects of drought and increasing consumption pressures. The study adopts a quantitative and analytical approach based on climatic and hydrological data, demographic information, and Landsat satellite imagery. The main findings reveal pronounced rainfall variability with an overall declining tendency, with drought years accounting for approximately 58% of the observation period. This climatic context has been accompanied by strong interannual fluctuations in the discharge of Oued Melloulou, with a slight long-term declining trend, along with a continuous and accelerating groundwater decline in the Tafrata aquifer at an average rate of 0.98 m per year. The analysis also indicates an estimated urban water deficit approaching 77% under peak demand conditions in 2025. Furthermore, NDVI-based analysis of satellite imagery highlights a marked expansion of irrigated areas in the Guercif Plain, increasing from about 2% of the total plain area in 1985 to approximately 9% in 2020. This vegetation expansion is largely associated with irrigation development, suggesting increasing pressure on groundwater resources rather than recovery linked to rainfall conditions. Overall, the findings raise critical concerns regarding the long-term sustainability of water resources and underscore the need for integrated and adaptive water-management strategies under persistent drought conditions.