article · Open Journal of Applied Sciences
Egypt contributed approximately 0.58 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2015, yet it faces substantial risks from climate change. An assessment of projected economic and agricultural impacts by the year 2030 outlines several scenarios based on land loss in the Nile Delta and shifting crop dynamics. Under baseline climate projections without land inundation, cultivated area is estimated to decrease by roughly 8.22 percent, reducing agricultural production value by 6.19 billion dollars while creating a water balance surplus. If 15 percent of Delta lands are submerged alongside changes in crop productivity and water usage, the national water balance shifts to a deficit of 4.74 billion cubic metres, cultivated area drops by 8.17 percent, and agricultural production value falls by 12.51 percent. In contrast, land inundation alone without other climate shifts results in a 5.57 percent decline in production value.
Climate change poses severe risks to national food security and economic stability. By quantifying how sea level rise and shifting agricultural conditions could reduce farmable acreage and water availability, these projections illustrate the potential financial scale of environmental losses. This helps policymakers and resource planners understand the specific trade-offs between land loss, crop output, and national water balances.
The abstract provides macroeconomic and environmental scenario modelling rather than a direct commercial product. The data could inform agricultural resource planning, irrigation infrastructure design, and climate adaptation strategies for public agencies or development organisations. As presented, the work is early-stage analytical research, and the abstract does not indicate a specific commercial application pathway or product.
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The emissions of greenhouse gasses in Egypt are about 0.58% of the total emissions of the world in the year 2015, although Egypt is one of the countries most affected by the impacts of climate change. By assessment and analysis of the expected economic impacts of climate change by the year 2030, the Egyptian cultivated area will be reduced to about 0.949 million acres, equal to about 8.22% of the Egyptian cultivated area compared with the case of no sinking part of the Delta land, thus reducing crop area in Egypt to about 1.406 million acres, approximately to about 6.25% of crop area compared with the case of no sinking part of the Delta land, in addition to surplus in the Egyptian balance water to about 2.48 billion m3. In this case value of the Egyptian agriculture production will decrease by about 6.19 billion dollars, equal to about 6.19% compared with presumably no sinking of the Delta land. In the case of sinking 15% of Delta lands, with the change of the productivity and water consumption of most crops, the result will be a reduction in the cultivated area to about 0.94 million acres. In addition to decreasing the Egyptian crop area to about 1.39 million acres, with a deficit in the Egyptian balance water to about 4.74 billion m3 compared to the case of no sinking part of the Delta land, the cultivated area will decrease to about 8.17%, and the crop area will decrease 6.18%. Also, the value of the Egyptian agriculture production will decrease by about 12.51%. While compared to sinking part of the Delta land to about 15% of the total Delta area without the other impacts of climate change, the cultivated area will increase by about 0.06%; the crop area will increase by about 0.08%; also, the value of the Egyptian agriculture production will decrease by about 5.57%.
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DOI: 10.4236/ojapps.2016.64027
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