The Potential Effects of De-risking from China on Global Economic Growth and Trade Patterns

Abstract

This study explores the potential effects of de-risking from China on global economic growth and trade patterns, shedding light on the main drivers behind this trend and its macroeconomic implications. By analyzing the challenges and opportunities associated with diversifying supply chains away from China, this research provides valuable insights for policymakers, businesses, and stakeholders. The study identifies key factors driving de-risking, including bureaucratic restrictions, global economic shifts, customer demands, the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical stability, and national security concerns. While there are logistical, financial, regulatory, operational, and strategic challenges, there are also opportunities for improving economic growth, competitiveness, resilience, sustainability, innovation, and social development. The findings contribute to a better understanding of the complexities of supply chain diversification and its impacts on the global economy. Future research could explore the long-term impacts of de-risking on global trade dynamics and investigate the role of digital technologies and innovation in shaping new supply chain strategies.