The land degradation and desertification-socioeconomic nexus in Egypt's delta region: A case study on Alexandria and Beheira

Abstract

The Nile Delta is Egypt's primary source of agricultural production. However, the Delta's capacity to remain Egypt's vital source of food security, rural development and economic stability is diminishing amidst persistent climate change risks. In this regard, this research gauges the impacts of climatic and anthropogenic factors on agricultural revenues and household wealth in Alexandria and Beheira, two of the Delta's most climate-vulnerable governorates. The research employs the Ricardian model by applying Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR), to test the impacts of climate change on real revenues from agriculture. Results show that quadratic temperature negatively impacts revenues from agriculture in Alexandria, while employment in agriculture, irrigation, livestock and machines positively contribute to revenues. In Beheira, results show that temperature and machines negatively contribute to agricultural revenues, while livestock contributes positively. The research further estimates the socioeconomic impacts of land degradation and desertification on individuals in Alexandria and Beheira by using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) robust standard errors. Individuals' socio-economic status, proxied by their wealth index (WI), is regressed on the Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI), gender, age, education, household size, work in agriculture and rural/urban residence. Outcomes reveal that individuals' wealth status in Alexandria is positively correlated with ESI, age, and education. In Beheira, land degradation, household size, rural areas and fathers working in agriculture are negatively correlated with wealth. Education, however, contributes positively to wealth. The study proposes policy implications that aim to foster the growth and development of rural residents in the Delta region.