The impact of land use and cover change on ecosystem service value in the upper Tekeze basin

Abstract

Ecosystems provide essential services that support human well-being, yet their stability is increasingly threatened by changes in land use and land cover (LULC). This study evaluated the effects of LULC dynamics on ecosystem service values (ESVs) across major biomes in the Upper Tekeze Basin, Northeastern Ethiopia, from 1986 to 2022. Four temporal LULC datasets (Landsat images from 1986, 1998, 2010, and 2022) were analyzed using the Random Forest classification algorithm on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, with filtered training samples. A modified benefit transfer approach was used to estimate changes in ESVs for each reference year. Results showed a significant increase in cropland and settlement areas, mainly at the expense of grassland, forest, and bush and shrubland. The total ESVs were estimated at US$172.88 million in 1986, US$167.89 million in 1998, US$157.88 million in 2010, and US$159.83 million in 2022, indicating an overall decline of US$13.05 million over 36 years. Food production ESV increased from US$28.78 million in 1986 to US$32.34 million in 2022, a change of US$12.4%. Regulating services represented the largest share of total ESVs and declined by 12.63%, followed by supporting services (11.67%) and cultural services (13.1%). However, provisioning services increased by 4.17% in the study area. These results highlight significant losses of ecosystem value driven by LULC dynamics and emphasize the importance of sustainable land management strategies. The study offers vital insights for land-use planners and policymakers to balance development and ecosystem conservation in the Upper Tekeze Basin.