The Impact of Climatic Drought on the Sugar Industry in the Lower Moulouya Basin between 2000 and 2024 (NE Morocco)

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of climate-induced drought on sugar crops in the Lower Moulouya region, where four large, irrigated plains are found: Trifa in the Berkane province, and Sabra, Garb, and Bouarg plains in the Nador province. The study focuses on a monitoring period from 2000 to 2024, utilizing statistical analysis of industrial variables in relation to annual rainfall in Zaio, Bouarg, and Al Aaroui. The findings reveal a statistically significant correlation between the reduction in annual rainfall and the decline in sugar beet cultivation on one hand, and a reduction in industrial production indicators at the SUCRAFOR factory in Zaio on the other. To test these results, the NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) was applied to track the values of dense vegetation cover in irrigated plains, indicative of intensive industrial crops. The maximum NDVI values shifted from 0.5 in 2000, to 1 in 2009, then dropped to 0.5 in 2016, and reached 0.6 in 2024. Through analysis of satellite imagery using this index, a reduction in industrial crop areas over time was observed, decreasing from 13,686 hectares in 2000 to 11,341 hectares in 2009, then slightly recovering to 11,515 hectares in 2009, only to reach its lowest level in 2024 at an area of 8,057 hectares.