The Impact of Climate Change on Malaria Incidence in Bonaberi and Tombel Districts, Cameroon

Abstract

Abstract Purpose Global warming and its impact on malaria incidence is a call for concern. Malaria a vector-borne disease is sensitive to weather and climate condition. Because of the increased concentration of human activities on wetlands, the lives of those living there are vulnerable to climate-related diseases including malaria. Methods This study examines malaria incidence and the impact of climate change on the population living in Bonaberi and Tombel. Parasite ratio Observed is obtained from the national malaria program as well as Precipitation data obtained from Famine Early Warning Systems Network. Temperature data is obtained from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Simulations are done using the VECTRI model. To study the observed parasite ratio(PR) and PR simulated in Tombel and Bonaberi and make projections of PR for the two areas using CORDEX projections data under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Results Results show that both Tombel and Bonaberi had peaks of parasite ratio PR (0.8) for Tombel and a slight increase in Bonaberi to up to PR (0.9). Also, future projections reveal a fluctuating increase in the PR for the Bonaberi having a PR of (0.95) and Tombel having a peak PR of (0.9). Conclusion The results from this work are expected to guide community-based early-warning systems and adaptation strategies, future planning and implementation strategies in Bonaberi and Tombel, which will assist the national malaria program, in adapting to climate change.