The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): Geopolitical Implications

Abstract

This study examined the geopolitical implications of the GERD project in light of the ‗framework of benefit-sharing‘. The study adopted a qualitative research approach in which data were gathered from multiple sources, such as key informant interviews, books, journal articles, policy briefs, commentary, and opinions; and documents such as declarations, agreements, letters, and statements, water policies, government communications, reports, and media sources. In light of this, the paper argues that GERD foreshadows a new emergent order based on principles of benefit-sharing capable of replacing the existing inequitable water-sharing regime. The GERD has the potential to create cooperation between the riparian countries because of its proven benefits to the region. The potential cost of non-cooperation may also push Egypt towards opting for cooperation. Furthermore, the GERD could shift the power dynamics by positioning Ethiopia as a regional anchor state, which could further enhance prospects for cooperation. The study also highlights that the conflict over the GERD extends beyond the physicality of the dam and is deeply rooted in the geopolitical rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt. Egypt perceives the GERD as an existential threat to its existing water-sharing regime while Ethiopia regards it as a benefit-sharing project and an existential necessity. However, the study highlights the possibility that the GERD may transform the geopolitical rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt from a water-based conflict into a power trade competition, implying that cooperation and conflict, competition and cooperation, may coexist in this complex geopolitical landscape. The study implies that understanding the geopolitical implications of the GERD is crucial for navigating the complexities of the issue and finding sustainable solutions. Keywords: Geopolitics, GERD, Benefit-sharing, Water-sharing, Ethiopia, Egypt, Nile