The Future of Africa’s Digitalisation: Evidence from Phillips–Sul Convergence Clubbing and Predictive ML Models

Abstract

Globalisation, accompanied by the rapid advancement of digital technologies, has become the bedrock of contemporary economies. However, the global digital divide has hindered many economies from enjoying the benefits of enhanced digitalisation. This study addresses the question: to what extent is there evidence of digital convergence or divergence among global economies, and what specific patterns of club clustering exist within the African continent? Employing a quantitative research design with secondary panel data from 123 countries (38 African), the study applies the Phillips and Sul convergence and club clustering algorithm to analyse digitalisation trends. The findings reveal that African countries exhibit significantly stronger within-club convergence dynamics than broader developing country groups, with Africa’s adjustment speed (σ = 2.5624) exceeding the Global South average (σ = 0.8394) by more than threefold. This indicates that African nations are following a similar ICT development trajectory and catching up with other global regions at an accelerated rate. However, the study identifies substantial digital inequality within Africa itself, as countries fail to converge to a single steady state, instead forming distinct convergence clubs. These results underscore that digitalisation follows a systematic and continuous process determined by both technological advancement and countries’ absorptive capacity to adopt these technologies.