The effect of weather on stock market returns: Evidence from African stock markets

Abstract

Increasing market volatility and the profound impacts of climate change require a comprehensive understanding of how weather affects stock market performance. This paper aims to investigate the effect of eight weather conditions (clear sky, precipitation, pressure, temperature, relative humidity, specific humidity, wind direction, and wind speed) on the returns of major African stock markets (Botswana, Cote d’Ivoire, Kenya, Mauritius, Morocco, Namibia, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa, Tanzania, Tunisia, Uganda and Zambia) over the period from January 2, 1998 to December 30, 2023. Using daily data and a GJR-GARCH (1,1) model with an AR process, the findings reveal that weather conditions influence all African stock markets. Specifically, the markets are categorized according to their sensitivity to weather conditions into three groups: highly affected (5-7 coefficients with 0.001≤ p <0.05), moderately affected (3-4 coefficients with 0.001≤ p <0.05), and slightly affected (1-2 coefficients with 0.001≤ p <0.05). Mauritius and Uganda emerge as the most weather-sensitive countries, with significant impacts (0.001≤ p <0.05) for seven of the eight weather conditions studied. Understanding the relationship between weather conditions and African stock markets enables investors to adjust their strategies and better manage their portfolios to optimize return opportunities. Ultimately, this study provides essential insights for investors, portfolio managers, and financial decision-makers, aiding them in better assessing the risks and opportunities associated with weather conditions in African stock markets, thereby enhancing their decision-making and investment management.