The economic viability of green technology adoption in Global South countries: An ex-ante evaluation using time series predictions of carbon emissions

In plain language

This study investigates the economic viability of adopting green technologies in Global South countries, where rapid industrial growth and reliance on fossil fuels are increasing carbon footprints. It explores how economic evaluation models, specifically Cost-Benefit Analysis, Life Cycle Cost Analysis, and Social Impact Investing, can assist policymakers in choosing green technology projects that reduce both emissions and operational costs. By analysing historical data from three countries, the research identifies significant increases in sector-level emissions over the past two decades. Forecasts suggest these rises will continue, with the notable exception of Kenya's energy sector, which is projected to see a decline. These findings highlight the critical need for effective green technology implementation.

Key takeaways

Global South countries are experiencing increased carbon footprints due to industrial growth and fossil fuel dependence.
Economic evaluation models such as Cost-Benefit Analysis, Life Cycle Cost Analysis, and Social Impact Investing can guide policymakers in selecting green technology projects.
Historical data reveal significant increases in sector-level carbon emissions across three studied countries over the last two decades.
Emissions are generally forecasted to continue rising, though Kenya's energy sector is an exception, with a projected decline.
There is an urgent requirement for the effective implementation of green technologies to address rising emissions.

Why it matters

Addressing rising carbon emissions in the Global South is crucial for global climate goals and sustainable development. This research provides a framework for policymakers to make informed decisions about green technology investments, potentially leading to cleaner energy, reduced pollution, and more sustainable economic growth in these regions.

Commercialisation angle

This research offers a framework for policymakers and development organisations to evaluate and select green technology projects. The economic evaluation models discussed could be integrated into decision-support tools or consultancy services aimed at governments and investors in the Global South. This is early-stage research providing methodological guidance rather than a direct product, helping to inform strategic investment in sustainable infrastructure and energy solutions.

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Abstract

Green technology adoption in the Global South is vital due to rapid industrial growth and reliance on fossil fuels, leading to increased carbon footprints. This study explores how economic evaluation models: Cost-Benefit Analysis, Life Cycle Cost Analysis, and Social Impact Investing-can aid policymakers in selecting green technology projects that reduce emissions and operational costs. Analyzing historical data from three countries, we find significant increases in sector-level emissions over the past two decades, with forecasts indicating continued rises except in Kenya’s energy sector, which is expected to decline. These results underscore the urgent need for effective green technology implementation.

Research topics

Environmental Impact and Sustainability
Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
Energy, Environment, Economic Growth

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