The economic impact of climate change on agriculture: a meta-analysis

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant threat to global agriculture, with implications for crop productivity, farm income, and economic viability. This meta-analysis synthesizes evidence from 17 empirical studies (2015–2025) to quantify the economic impact of climate change on agricultural systems worldwide. Using a random-effects model, we find a statistically significant but modest negative overall effect size of –0.100 (p = 0.026), indicating consistent adverse pressures that, while modest in standardized terms, translate to measurable reductions in yield and farm income on a global scale. Despite substantial between-study heterogeneity (I2 = 98.9%), subgroup analyses reveal pronounced regional disparities: Europe and North America show strong negative effects, while Africa exhibits high vulnerability through a negative yet statistically non-significant trend, reflecting both limited data and measurement consistency. Multi-cropping systems demonstrate significant variability in both economic yields and climate resilience, whereas monocultures—particularly maize—show higher sensitivity to climate stress. Robustness checks, including heterogeneity diagnostics, sensitivity analyses using alternative effect measures, and formal publication bias tests (Egger’s test: p = 0.208), support the direction and reliability of the findings. These results highlight the urgent need for region-specific adaptation strategies, investments in climate-resilient technologies such as drought-tolerant varieties and precision irrigation, and institutional reforms to mitigate adverse economic outcomes. This study provides policymakers and stakeholders with evidence-based insights to enhance agricultural resilience under accelerating climate risks.