The Dynamics of Natural Population Increase and Urbanization in East Africa: Heterogeneous Panel Data Analysis 1960–2020

Abstract

The question of whether urbanization represents a boon or a bane for developing nations has triggered enduring discourse within academic and political spheres. Notwithstanding the persistent deliberations, scant attention has been devoted to examining the influence of natural population augmentation in propelling urbanization. Therefore, this study bridges this gap through a heterogeneous panel data analysis employing the use of Mean Group, Dynamic Fixed Effects and, Pooled Mean Group models, delving into the dynamics linking natural population increase and urbanization across the East African Countries of Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, and Tanzania using data from World Bank spanning from 1960 to 2020. The findings reveal the significant and heterogeneous enduring impact of natural population increase on regional urbanization, intertwined with variables such as fertility rate and population growth. Moreover, findings reveal that migration have a higher influence on urbanization compared to natural population increase in the East African context. However, it is important to note that the extent of this influence varies across countries in the region. Drawing from these findings, the study underscores the imperative for member states to bolster socioeconomic provisions in rural domains, curtailing the influx of natural population increase into urban areas. Concurrently, embracing global population management agendas emerges as a vital stride toward attaining sustainable development and alleviating resource pressures. In sum, this study furnishes invaluable insights into the intricate facets of urbanization within developing realms, accentuating the exigency for bespoke strategies to surmount the distinctive challenges encountered by each sovereign nation.