Temporal shifts in the socio-ecological factors of red pepper cultivation across elevation gradients in Ethiopian highlands

Abstract

This study examines how ecological, social, and experiential factors associated with red pepper ( Capsicum annuum ) cultivation decisions and land allocation have shifted over time using logistic and linear regression within a mixed-methods framework among 296 households in the Lah watershed, Northwest Ethiopia. Among previously non-cultivating households, 71.8% began cultivation after 2022, an empirically observed turning point marked by yield declines and seedling deformities at lower elevations, alongside a shift toward higher elevations (from 1.4% to 85.5%, p < 0.001). Logistic regression models showed strong explanatory power (Nagelkerke R 2 = 0.75–0.82), with peer influence strongly associated with a higher likelihood of cultivation (OR ≈ 10–11, p < 0.001), alongside intercropping and positive market expectations. Elevation shifted from a negative association before 2022 (OR = 0.01, p < 0.001) to a positive association after 2022 (OR = 4.29, p = 0.01), while seedling deformities were negatively associated with cultivation (OR = 0.09, p = 0.04). Total farm size (β = 0.490), elevation (β = 0.317), and labor availability (β = 0.134) were the primary factors significantly ( p < 0.01) linked to land allocation, with larger farms, higher elevations, and greater labor resources linked to expanded cultivation. These results highlight shifting ecological and social factors of smallholder adaptation, underscoring the need for elevation-specific agronomic support, strengthened farmer-to-farmer knowledge exchange, and interventions addressing labor and land constraints to enhance climate resilience in upland agroecosystems.