Temporal Changes in Youth Subjective Well-Being in Nigeria, 2016–2021

Abstract

Abstract This study examines the impact of subnational structural determinants on the subjective well-being of Nigerian youth (aged 15–24) between 2016 and 2021. Individual-level data from IPUMS-harmonised Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) were linked to state-year contextual indicators from the Global Data Lab, including the Global Vulnerability Index (GVI), a corruption-based institutional quality measure, and the Gini coefficient of income inequality. This micro–macro linkage situates youth well-being within social, institutional, and economic environments. Survey-weighted regression models accounting for the complex MICS sampling design reveal a significant decline in affective well-being over time, with the 2021 period effect remaining robust after adjustment for institutional quality, fragility, and inequality. Female gender and higher education emerged as protective factors, while formerly or never-married status increased vulnerability. By integrating individual survey data with spatially indexed structural indicators, the study demonstrates the analytical value of micro–macro linkages for understanding how subnational contexts shape youth well-being in fragile and unequal settings.