article · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
An integrated techno-economic assessment evaluates green hydrogen deployment for industrial clusters in Nigeria by combining utility hydropower and distributed utility-scale solar photovoltaics. The modelling co-optimises renewable supply dispatch, electrolyser sizing, hydrogen storage, short-distance pipeline distribution, and aggregated industrial demand across cement, ammonia, steel, petrochemicals, and heavy transport. Financial analysis tailored to Nigerian conditions indicates that pairing solar and hydro resources increases the electrolyser capacity factor to between 40 and 60 percent, compared to 15 to 35 percent for solar alone. This hybrid configuration lowers the levelised cost of hydrogen by 10 to 25 percent relative to solar-only baselines, meeting up to 70 percent of initial cluster demand. A phased roadmap spanning 2026 to 2050 outlines policy instruments, investment mechanisms, local manufacturing, water management, and safety regulations to guide industrial decarbonisation.
Heavy industrial sectors such as steel, cement, and petrochemicals face significant hurdles in eliminating emissions. By showing that combining Nigeria's complementary hydropower and solar resources significantly cuts costs and improves supply reliability, this analysis provides an evidence base for regional energy transition planning, industrial decarbonisation strategies, and resource management across West Africa.
The study provides planning frameworks and cost models for infrastructure developers, energy planners, industrial cluster operators, and public-private financiers targeting decarbonisation in heavy industry. Because the work consists of techno-economic modelling and a 2026 to 2050 policy roadmap, it represents an early planning stage rather than an applied or operational system, requiring regulatory creation, capital investment, and infrastructure construction before commercialisation.
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This paper presents a techno-economic assessment and regional roadmap for the deployment of green hydrogen production targeted at Nigeria’s industrial clusters by leveraging the country’s complementary renewable resource mix — utility hydropower and distributed utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV). The study develops an integrated modelling framework that co-optimizes (i) renewable supply dispatch (hydro + solar), (ii) electrolyser sizing and operating strategy, (iii) hydrogen storage and short-distance pipeline distribution, and (iv) demand aggregation across industrial clusters (cement, ammonia, steel/metal processing, refined petrochemicals and heavy transport). A levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) model tailored to Nigerian financial conditions is presented, together with scenario analysis (Solar-Only, Hydro-Only, Solar-Hydro Hybrid) and sensitivity testing against key parameters (electrolyser CAPEX, renewable capacity factor, grid curtailment, water cost, and financing rate). Results show that the hybrid solar–hydro configuration improves electrolyser capacity factor substantially (40–60% vs. 15–35% for solar only), reduces LCOH by 10–25% compared with solar-only baselines, and enables dispatchable hydrogen supply that meets up to 70% of cluster hydrogen demand during the first deployment phase. The paper further proposes a phased regional roadmap (2026–2050) and policy instruments to mobilize public-private investment, local manufacturing, water-use management, and regulatory frameworks for offtake, transport and safety. The study fills a critical gap in Nigeria’s energy planning literature by providing the first cluster-level, hybrid renewable techno-economic model and a practical roadmap for green hydrogen integration into industrial decarbonization strategies.
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DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18085634
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