Sustainable Multi-Energy Microgrid Operation: Birds of Prey-Based Day-Ahead Scheduling Under Seasonal Renewable Uncertainty

Abstract

The increasing integration of renewable energy resources into modern microgrids requires reliable scheduling methods capable of managing uncertainty, seasonal variability, operating cost, and environmental impact. This study proposes a stochastic day-ahead scheduling approach for a representative grid-connected multi-energy microgrid comprising photovoltaic generation, wind generation, a microturbine, a fuel cell, an energy storage system, and utility-grid exchange. The proposed model was implemented and simulated in a MATLAB (2024b) environment. The Birds of Prey-Based Optimization algorithm is applied to determine the optimal 24 h dispatch schedule by minimizing a weighted objective function that combines operating and emission costs. Uncertainties in solar irradiance, wind speed, electrical load, ambient temperature, and electricity prices are modeled using probabilistic distributions and Monte Carlo simulations. To improve computational efficiency, 1000 generated scenarios are reduced to 10 representative scenarios using Fast Forward Selection based on Kantorovich distance. Seasonal case studies for winter, spring, summer, and autumn are used to evaluate the proposed method. Compared with five metaheuristic algorithms, the proposed approach achieves the lowest fitness value in all seasons, with reductions of 15.2%, 26.5%, 6.8%, and 23.9%, respectively. The results confirm improved economic and environmental microgrid operation under seasonal renewable uncertainty.