Strategic Drivers of Success in Unconventional Oil and Gas Projects for Sustainable Economic Inclusion in South Africa

Abstract

Project managers in South Africa point to both strategic and operational drivers for unconventional oil and gas development (UOGD). Strategically, UOGD is framed as a way to strengthen energy security, diversify the national energy mix, and unlock gas-based industrial and infrastructure development that can widen participation in the economy. This paper examines the strategic drivers of success in unconventional oil and gas development (UOGD) projects in South Africa. It further explores how these drivers can support more sustainable forms of economic inclusion. The study responds to the country’s dependence on imported crude oil and the slow progress of domestic UOGD. It also speaks to the need for credible pathways to broaden participation in the energy economy. A qualitative design was used, and semi-structured interviews were conducted with senior project managers from eight operators. At the time of the study, all eight held licences issued by the South African Agency for Promotion and Exploitation of Petroleum (SOC) Limited. All participants had more than 15 years of project-management experience and brought technical, legal, and strategic expertise. Interview data were transcribed, coded, and thematically analysed. The findings show that predictable regulation, coordinated licensing, and investment in midstream infrastructure are central to project viability. Governance stability and regulatory coherence are also important. Strong stakeholder relationships and fair risk allocation across the value chain emerged as further strategic drivers. The study shows that UOGD can support sustainable economic inclusion only when key conditions align, such as technical capability, governance quality, environmental safeguards and inclusive engagement. This study contributes to scientific knowledge by identifying project-level factors that enable UOGD in contested regulatory and social conditions. The study provides a practical framework that can be tested in other emerging economies with similar governance complexity. It also draws attention to implications for policymakers, including the need for clearer regulation, coordinated approvals and long-term infrastructure planning.