STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE EVOLUTION OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN EGYPT AND THEIR IMPACT ON ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT UP TO 2040

Abstract

The transportation sector in Egypt consumes 22% of the total hydrocarbon consumed in the country. As the power generation sector is shifting toward renewable energy, electrification of the transport sector will represent an effective tool to reduce greenhouse gasses. This study aims to assess the environmental and economic consequences of the evolution of the share of electric vehicles (EVs) in private car and taxi fleets in Egypt up to 2040. A detailed stochastic model was developed to calculate the total cost of ownership for both electric and conventional gasoline vehicles using a bottom-up stochastic approach. The model predicts the evolution of EVs in the Egyptian market up to 2040 and assesses the environmental and economic consequences of the conversion to EVs. In addition, the model considers the statistical distribution of new cars among various car classes, developing a database for the equivalent sizes of EVs and their prices. Base and proactive scenarios predicted the required energy policies to facilitate the transition to electric mobility in both scenarios. Based on the model, the share of electric private cars and taxis will reach 26.7% and 48.1% of the total quantity of vehicles by 2040. Gasoline saving up to 2.85 Mt will be a 10.81 Mt reduction in CO2 emissions up to 2040. The EV electricity demand for the proactive scenario will be 12.9 TWh by 2040. This demand represents a share of 2.2%–3.65% of the electricity generated by 2040, depending on the base and proactive scenarios, respectively. However, it may be a challenge at the electricity distribution level. This request enhances the distribution infrastructure and incorporates smart charging and optimization techniques.