Stakeholder Engagement and Governance in Zambia’s Copper Mining Sector

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of stakeholder satisfaction with governance outcomes in Zambia’s copper mining sector, examining whether different dimensions of engagement shape perceptions of institutional legitimacy. While participation occupies a central position in resource governance theory, limited empirical evidence explains how specific engagement characteristics influence satisfaction outcomes in extractive economies. Drawing on survey data from 250 stakeholders, the study employs a binary logistic regression model with marginal effects to estimate the probability of governance satisfaction as a function of engagement frequency, engagement effectiveness, and perceived influence on decision-making. The logit specification appropriately accommodates the dichotomous dependent variable and enables probabilistic interpretation of behavioural responses. Although overall explanatory power is modest, the directional patterns are theoretically coherent. Engagement effectiveness and perceived influence display positive marginal associations with satisfaction, while higher engagement frequency exhibits a negative association, suggesting potential participatory fatigue when consultations are not perceived as consequential. Post-estimation diagnostics indicate acceptable model calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow χ2 = 6.77, p = 0.56) and moderate discriminatory capacity (AUC = 0.64), consistent with perception-based governance models. The findings support participatory governance theory by demonstrating that legitimacy is more closely associated with perceived influence and substantive responsiveness than with consultation volume alone. By providing quantitative evidence from Zambia’s extractive sector, the study contributes to governance economics literature and reframes policy emphasis from participation frequency toward outcome-oriented engagement mechanisms embedded within accountable institutional structures.