Spatiotemporal trends of climate variability and its impact on dynamics of vegetation in the case Jawi woreda, Amhara region, Northwestern Ethiopia

Abstract

This study contributes to the growing need for climate-resilient and sustainable land management strategies in Sub-Saharan Africa by analyzing the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation and its climatic drivers in Jawi Woreda, Northwestern Ethiopia. The study examined the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation and its climatic drivers using 24-year remotely sensed datasets from 2001 to 2024, MODIS-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST), together with CHIRPS precipitation data, were used to compute the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and trend statistics based on the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. Results show a statistically significant increasing trend in annual precipitation (Mann–Kendall Z = 0.355, p < 0.01) with Sen’s slope of 5.36 mm/year, while LST increased significantly at a rate of 0.09 °C/year ( p < 0.001). NDVI exhibited a significant upward trend (Z = 2.90, p < 0.01) with an annual increase of 0.00197. Correlation analysis revealed a weak positive relationship between NDVI and precipitation (r = 0.25, p > 0.05) and a moderate positive relationship with LST (r = 0.588, p < 0.01). SPI and VCI results indicate recurrent drought conditions, particularly during 2002–2009, with extreme vegetation stress observed in 2012 (VCI < 10%). Overall, the findings suggest that while precipitation has slightly improved, increasing temperature and land-use change may offset climatic gains, contributing to ecosystem degradation. By providing localized evidence, this study supports Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 13 (Climate Action), SDG 15 (Life on Land), and SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), offering critical insights for climate adaptation, ecosystem restoration, and sustainable land-use planning.