Spatio-temporal analysis of meteorological drought return periods in a Mediterranean arid region, the center of Morocco

Abstract

ABSTRACT Morocco has recently witnessed a surge in drought occurrences, leading to considerable socioeconomic damage. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) at three- and 12-month timescales was employed to assess spatiotemporal drought characteristics across the Marrakech-Safi arid region. Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope methods were adopted to assess SPI trends. Furthermore, the Gumbel copula was employed to construct the joint distribution function of three drought variables: duration, severity, and intensity. The spatial distribution of drought return period for different scenarios was carried out. Results revealed notable interannual fluctuations of wet and drought cycles, with the driest years being 1983 and 2005 and a mixture of positive and negative trends of SPI-12 and SPI-3 over the 1972–2018 period. Nevertheless, statistical significance was observed in only 50% of the SPI-12 trends and 27% of the SPI-3 trends. The drought severity in the region was highest in the plain area, with droughts lasting 6–20 months for 75% of all drought events for SPI-12. The coastal strip exhibited the lowest drought recurrences. Furthermore, dry periods exhibited greater temporal variability over shorter timescales. Finally, trivariate return periods of drought events were the longer, averaging 93 months for SPI-12.