Spatial modeling and analysis of malaria transmission dynamics involving Anopheles stephensi with application to Ethiopia

Abstract

Abstract Anopheles stephensi , an invasive malaria vector historically limited to South Asia and the Middle East, is now rapidly spreading into urban areas of Africa, including Ethiopia. This study formulates a spatial reaction-diffusion model to analyse the malaria dynamics among the human host, the native mosquito, and the invasive Anopheles stephensi . For the spatially homogeneous model the study discuses the existence and stability of equilibrium points, derives the basic reproduction number, and present bifurcation analysis. Additionally, the study investigates the effect of vector diffusion and insecticide mortality on the minimum wave speed necessary for the successful spread of mosquito population and disease spread. Numerical simulations reveal that Anopheles stephensi significantly intensifies malaria transmission in urban environments. The findings of this study show an urgent need for spatially targeted vector control strategies via habitat modification and insecticide application, specifically designed for urban settings.