article · Scientific Reports
Surveillance data from 72 locations across Nigeria in 2020 was gathered to model the geographical distribution and habitat suitability of primary malaria vectors. More than 60,000 Anopheline mosquitoes were identified, yielding 716 breeding sites populated by species within the Anopheles gambiae complex, which constituted 98 percent of all collections. Using Maximum Entropy distribution modelling alongside 23 bioclimatic and topographic variables, distribution maps were generated for three dominant vector species under current climatic conditions. The primary vectors, Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles coluzzii, demonstrated widespread and nearly equal habitat suitability across twelve states, though Anopheles coluzzii exhibited a slight range expansion. Conversely, central Nigeria and high-elevation savannah zones were deemed unsuitable for these two species. Suitable habitats for Anopheles arabiensis were concentrated primarily in south-western and north-eastern Nigeria.
Malaria transmission depends directly on the presence and spread of specific mosquito vectors. Mapping where individual vector species thrive allows public health authorities and disease control initiatives to target vector management interventions precisely. Understanding geographical variations in habitat suitability helps decision makers design evidence-based surveillance frameworks and optimise resource allocation for vector control across Nigeria.
This work generates predictive spatial models that can directly inform public health bodies, municipal authorities, and vector management organisations designing targeted mosquito interventions. While positioned as an applied scientific baseline rather than a direct commercial product, the findings and distribution models are ready for operational integration into national mosquito surveillance and intervention programmes.
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The need for evidence-based data, to inform policy decisions on malaria vector control interventions in Nigeria, necessitated the establishment of mosquito surveillance sites in a few States in Nigeria. In order to make evidence-based-decisions, predictive studies using available data becomes imperative. We therefore predict the distribution of the major members of the Anopheles gambiae s.l. in Nigeria. Immature stages of Anopheles were collected from 72 study locations which span throughout the year 2020 resulted in the identification of over 60,000 Anopheline mosquitoes. Of these, 716 breeding sites were identified with the presence of one or more vector species from the An. gambiae complex and were subsequently used for modelling the potential geographical distribution of these important malaria vectors. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) distribution modeling was used to predict their potentially suitable vector habitats across Nigeria. A total of 23 environmental variables (19 bioclimatic and four topographic) were used in the model resulting in maps of the potential geographical distribution of three dominant vector species under current climatic conditions. Members of the An. gambiae complex dominated the collections (98%) with Anopheles stephensi, Anopheles coustani, Anopheles funestus, Anopheles moucheti, Anopheles nilli also present. An almost equal distribution of the two efficient vectors of malaria, An. gambiae and Anopheles coluzzii, were observed across the 12 states included in the survey. Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles coluzzii had almost equal, well distributed habitat suitability patterns with the latter having a slight range expansion. However, the central part of Nigeria (Abuja) and some highly elevated areas (Jos) in the savannah appear not suitable for the proliferation of these species. The most suitable habitat for Anopheles arabiensis was mainly in the South-west and North-east. The results of this study provide a baseline allowing decision makers to monitor the distribution of these species and establish a management plan for future national mosquito surveillance and control programs in Nigeria.
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DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-40929-5
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