Smallholder Farmers Perception of Climate Change Trends in Ethiopia’s Upper Blue Nile Basin: Implication for Adaptation Strategies

Abstract

<title>Abstract</title> Climate change poses significant global threats, particularly for Sub-Saharan African countries such as Ethiopia. This research aimed to comprehensively evaluate climatic trends, smallholder farmers' perceptions of climate change and variability, the factors shaping these perceptions, and their implications for climate change adaptation strategies. To achieve this, data were collected from 646 randomly selected participants using a multi-stage random sampling method, alongside focus group discussions and interviews with key informants. Temperature data were sourced from the Google Earth platform "IDAHO_EPSCOR/TERRACLIMATE" website, while daily rainfall data were obtained from the "UCSB-CHG/CHIRPS/DAILY" website. Statistical analyses, including a modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen's Slope Estimator, were utilized to examine temperature and rainfall patterns. A probit model was employed to assess farmers' perceptions of climate change. The findings revealed a consistent annual rise in mean temperature across all three agroecologies (highland, lowland, and midland) in the region, with respective increases of 0.023°C, 0.020°C, and 0.024°C. Similarly, rainfall trends exhibited an increase of 2.37 mm/year, 2.18 mm/year, and 1.52 mm/year for the highland, lowland, and midland agroecologies, respectively. While most smallholder farmers perceived climate change in terms of rising temperatures, a notable disparity emerged between their perceptions of rainfall patterns and actual rainfall data. Critical factors influencing farmers' perceptions included livelihood diversity, land ownership, and access to climate information and training. The study emphasizes the significance of enhancing access to accurate climate information and promoting climate-smart agricultural practices among farmers across all agroecologies. Integration of climate change awareness campaigns into existing programs, with specific focus on landless farmers and those with limited livelihood options, is recommended