Series 3: From Infection to Disease: A Global Scoping Review of Medical and Behavioural Determinants of Progression from TB Infection to TB Disease

Abstract

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major global health threat, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, with TB infection (TBI) serving as the primary source of TB disease. While HIV infection has long been recognised as a major risk factor for TB progression, the rise of Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs), which may exert immunosuppressive effects, further compounded by their treatment, contributes to increased TB susceptibility. This scoping review synthesises evidence from systematic reviews on medical and behavioural risk factors for TBI progression to TB disease, for both asymptomatic and symptomatic disease. Methods: A preliminary literature search was conducted on 11 January 2025, in PUBMED using the keywords “tuberculosis,” “asymptomatic or subclinical tuberculosis” “risk factors,” and “systematic review” followed by targeted reviews on the identified medical and behavioural risk factors for TB infection progression to TB disease. Results: A total of 25 systematic reviews were included. Medical risk factors for progression from TB infection to TB disease included diabetes mellitus (DM), chronic kidney disease (CKD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), undernutrition (including iron and vitamin D deficiency), cancer—particularly haematological malignancies—and immunosuppressive therapies (TNF-α inhibitors and glucocorticoids). Iron and vitamin D deficiency, particularly severe deficiency, is linked to increased TB risk, especially among people living with HIV. Behavioural risk factors, including tobacco, drug, and alcohol use, were also highlighted. Geographic variations in TB prevalence, diagnostic practices, and healthcare systems contributed to differences in risk estimates across reviews. No systematic reviews were identified that examined risk factors for asymptomatic TB. Conclusions: The convergence of TB with NCDs, compounded by immunosuppressive therapies, poses a public health challenge in high TB burden settings. Effective TB prevention requires targeted screening, along with enhanced management of these NCDs. Nutritional support, particularly screening and treatment of anaemia and vitamin D deficiency, may benefit individuals with TBI, comorbid NCDs, and HIV. A multidisciplinary approach, integrating behavioural interventions and tailored prevention strategies, is essential to achieving WHO’s End TB targets. Addressing the evidence gap on risk factors for asymptomatic TB is also critical to improve early detection and interrupt transmission.