Scaling up solar and wind electricity: empirical modelling and a disruptive scenario for their deployments in Aotearoa New Zealand

Abstract

Deployment of wind and solar electricity technologies is crucial for the energy transition, yet anticipated deployment rates differ widely often underestimating actual deployments. This issue is significant for countries like Aotearoa New Zealand, leading the way in major energy transitions. This study addresses two main issues: the historical underestimation of deployment rates and the need to synthesise various future scenarios to assess their potential impacts on the energy system. To address these problems, an empirical modelling approach based on logistic growth is adopted to create and analyse scenarios for the deployment of solar and wind technologies in New Zealand. We propose two scenarios: a reference growth scenario, which represents prevailing estimations for the deployment of solar and wind from previous forecasts; and a disruptive scenario, which anticipates a more rapid deployment pace. Both scenarios envision phasing out fossil fuels by 2030 but differ in the remaining electricity supply. In the disruptive scenario, the installed electricity generation broadens, in which solar and wind generation could represent 72% of the electricity generation capacity by 2050. Our findings emphasise the transformative potential of rapid wind and solar technologies deployment and highlight the importance of preparing for a disruptive future that challenges conventional expectations.