Russia-Ukraine War and Crypto-Currency Returns: An Experiment With New Data

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of the Russia-Ukraine War on cryptocurrency returns using the Feasible Quasi Generalised Least Squares technique. Our analysis diverges from conventional approaches by focusing on the susceptibility of cryptocurrency returns to the war and establishes a significant positive relationship. This finding underscores the resilience of cryptocurrencies in the face of geopolitical turmoil. Furthermore, we extend our examination to the predictive content of the war for cryptocurrency returns, employing it for both in- and out-of-sample forecast evaluations of the index against the historical average. We highlight the diversification potential of this asset class during war-induced crises.