Risk Predictors of Severity in Egyptian Patients with Covid-19 Infection

Abstract

Abstract Background In modern human history, infectious diseases have posed a threat to public health several times, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has emerged as a global public health crisis. Objective Identification of demographic, laboratory and radiological predictors of progression of COVID-19 infection in Egyptian patients. A special concern is focused on the poor prognostic factors associated with mortality, this will help to classify and monitor COVID-19 patients to deliver best medical care in order to decrease mortality and morbidity in Egyptian patients. Patients and Methods A single-center, retrospective cohort study. This study was conducted in Almaza Fever Hospital after obtaining approval from the Research Ethical Committee. Results The current study conducted on (325) known positive COVID-19 patients divided into 2 groups: Group I (204) patients and Group II (121) patients. It was found that an increase in age among Group II (mean age was 66.22 ± 12.18) in comparison to Group I (mean age was 47.78 ± 14.73) with a statistically significant difference (p-value <0.001). There was no statistically significant difference (p-value 0.432) between Sex and severe disease patients. Among Group II (121) out of the total study population 103 (85%) of these were found to have co-morbidities (highly significant, p value < 0.001. Moreover, there was a higher prevalence of co-morbidities among non survivors however this didn’t reach the level of statistical significance (p-value 0.174). The current study showed that there was an increase in hematological parameters (TLC, Neutrophils), biochemical parameters (Urea, Creatinine, AST, D-Dimer, Ferritin, CRP, LDH, IL-6) and a decrease in Lymphocytes within Group II in comparison with Group I with statistically Significant difference (p-value < 0.001), also there was a trend toward higher levels of ALT in group II, however this didn’t reach the level of statistical significance (p-value 0.068). Statistically significant difference (p-value < 0.001) was found between disease severity and CT findings as from a total of (121) severe disease patients 105(86.8%) had CORADS (4-5). Conclusion The current study shows old age, elevated biochemical parameters (creatinine, urea, AST, D-dimer, IL-6, CRP, ferritin and LDH), hematological parameters (TLC) and extensive lung affection could be considered predictors of severity and mortality among Covid-19 patients. Also lymphopenia and associated co-morbidities are considered predictors of severity.