article · ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information
Rapid urban expansion and climate variability create complex thermal challenges for riverine cities. This study evaluated land surface temperature changes in Islamabad, Pakistan, between 2000 and 2020 by integrating satellite imagery, meteorological data, and geospatial tools. Using quantile classification, the analysis assessed land cover contributions to temperature shifts and mapped warming and cooling transitions. Over the twenty-year period, land surface temperature rose from 32.39 degrees Celsius to 45.63 degrees Celsius. Built-up and bare land zones drove significant warming, especially where population grew by nearly fifty percent. Conversely, vegetation and water bodies provided measurable cooling effects, with cooling transitions emerging across newly developed agricultural areas. Concurrently, annual rainfall increased and water body coverage more than doubled, narrowing the gap between land surface temperature and air temperature. The results demonstrate how targeted vegetation and water resources directly counter urban heating trends.
Expanding cities often experience rapid heating as concrete replaces natural landscapes. By tracking how specific land types either amplify or reduce surface heat over decades, this research provides measurable evidence of how green spaces and water bodies can naturally cool urban environments. These insights help city planners and environmental managers design cooler, healthier, and more climate-resilient urban centres.
The spatial analysis and transition mapping methodologies could inform planning software tools used by municipal authorities, urban developers, and environmental consultancies to assess the thermal impact of proposed developments. Because the study represents early-stage analytical research using historical satellite and meteorological records, substantial software engineering and model validation would be necessary before transforming these geospatial workflows into commercial decision-support products.
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Urbanized riverine cities in southern Asian developing countries face significant challenges in understanding the spatiotemporal thermal impacts of land use/land cover (LULC) changes driven by rapid urbanization and climatic variability. While previous studies have investigated factors influencing land surface temperature (LST) variations, gaps persist in integrating Landsat imagery (7 and 8), meteorological data, and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools to evaluate the thermal effects of specific LULC types, including cooling and warming transitions, and their influence on air temperature under variable precipitation patterns. This study investigates LST variations in Islamabad, Pakistan, from 2000 to 2020 using quantile classification at three intervals (2000, 2010, 2020). The thermal contributions of each LULC type across the LST-based temperature classes were analyzed using the Land Contribution Index (LCI). Finally, Warming and Cooling Transition (WCT) maps were generated by intersecting LST classes with 2000 as the baseline. Results indicated a rise in LST from 32.39 °C in 2000 to 45.63 °C in 2020. The negative LCI values revealed that vegetation and water bodies in lower temperature zones (Ltc_1 to Ltc_3) contributed to cooling effects, while positive LCI values in built-up and bare land areas in higher temperature zones (Ltc_5–Ltc_7) exhibited warming effects. The WCT map showed a general warming trend (cold-to-hot type) from 2000 to 2020, particularly in newly urbanized areas due to a 49.63% population increase, while cooling effects (hot-to-cold type) emerged in the newly developed agricultural lands with a 46.46% rise in vegetation. The mean annual air temperature gap with LST narrowed from 11.55 °C in 2000 to 2.28 °C in 2020, reflecting increased precipitation due to increasing yearly rainfall from 982.88 mm in 2000 to 1365.47 mm in 2020. This change also coincided with an expansion of water bodies from 2.82 km2 in 2000 to 6.35 km2 in 2020, impacting the local climate and hydrology. These findings highlight the importance of green spaces and water management to mitigate urban heat and improve ecological health.
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DOI: 10.3390/ijgi14010013
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