article · ABUAD International Journal of Natural and Applied Sciences
An examination of atmospheric conditions across Nigeria from 1994 to 2024 evaluates how cloud properties, solar radiation, and solar-geomagnetic indices affect convective available potential energy across rainforest, monsoon, and savanna climate zones. Reanalysis and satellite data reveal that mean convective energy is highest in the tropical rainforest and monsoon zones, frequently exceeding 2000 to 3000 J kg⁻¹ during periods of intense convection. In contrast, the savanna zone exhibits lower, highly seasonal convective energy ranging from 500 to 1800 J kg⁻¹. Cloud fraction remains above 0.60 in southern zones, aligning with heightened convective precipitation. Downward solar radiation affects energy indirectly via surface heating, notably during the savanna dry season. Causal analysis confirms that internal cloud and precipitation dynamics account for over 60 percent of convective variability, while external solar and geomagnetic factors contribute under 10 percent.
Severe weather and storm development depend heavily on convective available potential energy. Demonstrating that local cloud and precipitation processes overwhelmingly govern this energy, rather than space weather or geomagnetic activity, clarifies the primary drivers of atmospheric instability across West Africa. This insight helps meteorologists understand regional storm mechanics across diverse tropical environments.
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This study examines the effects of cloud properties, solar thermal radiation, and solar–geomagnetic indices on convective available potential energy (CAPE) across Nigeria’s tropical rainforest (Af), tropical monsoon (Am), and tropical savanna (Aw) climate zones from 1994 to 2024. Daily reanalysis and satellite-derived datasets were aggregated into climatological means. Statistical relationships were analyzed using lag-correlation and Normalized information flow (NIF), based on transfer entropy, was used to quantify directional causal influence among variables to quantify directional influences among variables. Mean CAPE values are highest in the Af and Am zones, frequently exceeding 2000–3000 J kg⁻¹ during peak convective periods, while the Aw zone exhibits lower and more seasonal CAPE, typically ranging from 500 to 1800 J kg⁻¹. Cloud fraction remains persistently high in the Af and Am zones (>0.60), coinciding with enhanced convective precipitation (CONPRE) and pronounced CAPE variability. Solar thermal radiation downward (STRD) contributes indirectly through surface heating, with shortwave fluxes of approximately 220–260 W m⁻² during the dry season, particularly influencing CAPE in the Aw zone. In contrast, solar and geomagnetic indices, including F10.7obs (FL) and Ap, show low mean values and weak correlations with CAPE. Information flow analysis indicates that cloud and precipitation processes account for more than 60% of CAPE variability, whereas solar and geomagnetic parameters contribute less than 10%. Collectively, CAPE variability acrossNigeria is dominated by internal atmospheric processes, with limited direct modulation by external solar–geomagnetic forcing.
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DOI: 10.53982/aijnas.2025.0502.12-j
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