Rainfall classification and forecasting based on a novel voting adaptive dynamic optimization algorithm

Abstract

Environmental issues of rainfall are basic in terms of understanding and management of ecosystems and natural resources. The rainfall patterns significantly affect soil moisture, vegetation growth and biodiversity in the ecosystems. In addition, proper classification of rainfall types helps in the evaluation of the risk of flood, drought, and other extreme weather events’ risk, which immensely affect the ecosystems and human societies. Rainfall classification can be improved by using machine learning and metaheuristic algorithms. In this work, an Adaptive Dynamic Puma Optimizer (AD-PO) algorithm combined with Guided Whale Optimization Algorithm (Guided WOA) introduces a potentially important improvement in rainfall classification approaches. These algorithms are to be combined to enable researchers to comprehend and classify rain events by their specific features, such as intensity, duration, and spatial distribution. A voting ensemble approach within the proposed (AD-PO-Guided WOA) algorithm increases its predictive performance because of the combination of predictions from several classifiers to localize the dominant rainfall class. The presented approach not only makes the classifying of rain faster and more accurate but also strengthens the robustness and trustworthiness of the classification in this regard. Comparison to other optimization algorithms validates the effectiveness of the AD-PO-Guided WOA algorithm in terms of performance metrics with an outstanding 95.99% accuracy. Furthermore, the second scenario is applied for forecasting based on the long short-term memory networks (LSTM) model optimized by the AD-PO-Guided WOA algorithm. The AD-PO-Guided WOA- LSTM algorithm produces rainfall prediction with an MSE of 0.005078. Wilcoxon rank test, descriptive statistics, and sensitivity analysis are applied to help evaluating and improving the quality and validity of the proposed algorithm. This intensive method facilitates rainfall classification and is a base for suggested measures that cut the hazards of extreme weather events on societies.