Quantifying the Effect of Change in Rainfall Dynamics on Agricultural Output in Nigeria

Abstract

Agricultural production has clearly gained acceptance, as a crucial approach to meeting the food consumption needs of Nigeria’s growing population as well as an important requirement for achieving food security. Hence, the objective of this paper is to quantify the effect of change in rainfall dynamics on agricultural output in Nigeria employing a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model and using data from the 2019 Social Accounting Matrix. The results revealed that rainfall shocks had an adverse effect on the four components of agricultural output considered such as crops, livestock, fishery and forestry in the short and long term. It also had a negative effect on aggregate agricultural output compared to the baseline scenario. Therefore, public policy towards investing heavily in rain harvesters cannot be overemphasized. There is the need for policy efforts towards targeted interventions that provide an enabling environment and the necessary infrastructures for private investments in agriculture, address climatic risks and build resilience among farmers.