Projections of Future Climate Change in Southern Africa and the Potential for Regional Tipping Points

Abstract

Abstract Southern Africa is a climate change hotspot with projected warming and drying trends amplifying stresses in a naturally warm, dry and water-stressed region. Despite model-projected uncertainty in rainfall change over the eastern escarpment of South Africa, strong model agreement in projections indicates that southern African is likely to become generally drier. Sharply increased regional warming and associated strong reductions in soil-moisture availability and increases in heat-waves and high fire-danger days are virtually certain under low mitigation futures. Changes are detectible in observed climate trends for the last few decades, including regional warming, drying in both the summer and winter rainfall regions, and increases in intense rainfall events. The southern African climate is at risk of tipping into a new regime, with unprecedented impacts, such as day-zero drought in the Gauteng province of South Africa, collapse of the maize and cattle industries, heat-waves of unprecedented intensity and southward shifts in intense tropical cyclone landfalls. Many of these adverse changes could be avoided if the Paris Accord’s global goal were to be achieved, but research is urgently required to quantify the probabilities of such tipping points in relation to future levels of global warming. Adaptation planning is an urgent regional priority.