Projected future changes in food insecurity hotspots over the IGAD region of Eastern Africa

Abstract

Abstract Food insecurity is a major issue in many parts of the world, driven by conflict, economic instability, environmental challenges, and poor governance processes. Understanding the impact of future rainfall extremes on areas already experiencing food insecurity is crucial. This study investigates how food insecurity hotspots (FIH), food crisis frequency, and duration will change in the near future (2021–2050) and far future (2071–2100) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The study utilizes precipitation data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and FIH data from the NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). To calculate future exposure and vulnerability to FIH, as well as food crisis frequency and duration, weighted sum models were used. The results indicate that arid and semi-arid areas in northeastern Kenya, most of Somalia, zones in southeastern Ethiopia, most of Djibouti, and central and northern Sudan are highly vulnerable to future extreme rainfall events, an increase in FIH cases, and longer food crisis frequency and duration in the near future (2021–2050) and far future (2071–2100) under all scenarios. On the other hand, most districts in Uganda, southern and southwestern South Sudan, counties in western Kenya, and the majority of zones in western Ethiopia are projected to have very few FIH cases, low food crisis frequency, and duration in both the near and far future under all scenarios. These findings are crucial for early warning systems, humanitarian responses, and food security interventions. We recommend harnessing projected increases in rainfall for water harvesting in Kenya, as well as promoting cash and food crop production in central and western Ethiopia, central and northern Uganda, and most of South Sudan.