Prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorders and the Years Lived With Disability in Eastern Sub‐Saharan Africa, From 1990 to 2023

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Autism spectrum disorders are lifelong neurodevelopmental conditions affecting social interaction, communication, and behavior. Despite rising global burden, data from Eastern Sub-Saharan African region are limited. This study estimated the prevalence of ASD and the years lived with disability in the region from 1990 to 2023. METHODS: We analyzed input data from the Global Burden of Diseases 2023 study for the ESSA countries. Prevalence and years lived with disability were estimated using disease modeling with Bayesian meta-regression and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Age-standardized rates were calculated, and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated. Trends were assessed for statistical significance based on UIs. RESULTS: In 2023, an estimated 4.24 million individuals (95% UI: 2.02, 8.80) were living with ASD in the ESSA region, with an age-standardized prevalence of 814 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 405, 1481). Autism spectrum disorders contributed 0.8 million YLDs (95% UI: 0.3, 1.9), and the age-standardized YLDs rate was 154 per 100,000 population (95% UI: 70, 333). Prevalence and YLDs showed no significant sex or location differences and remained nearly unchanged from 1990 to 2023. CONCLUSION: The study indicated that ASD is a significant and persistent health burden in the ESSA region, affecting young children and adolescents disproportionately. There is an urgent need for early detection of cases, strengthening collaborative initiatives, and implementing culturally sensitive, community-based interventions to support individuals with ASD and their caregivers. Moreover, improved surveillance and standardized diagnostic practices are important to guide policy and resource allocation.